AIV Work Programme for 2009

A. CURRENT ACTIVITIES

Some of the following topics from the 2008 work programme are already being addressed by the AIV; others will be taken up shortly. All four are expected to be completed by the end of the year.

1.     Climate change, energy and poverty reduction (See Advisory report No 62)

2.     Transitional justice (with the Advisory Committee on Issues of Public International Law (CAVV)) (See Advisory report No 65)

3.     Compatibility of political, military and development objectives in crisis management operations (See Advisory report No 64)

4.     Universality of human rights and cultural diversity (See Advisory report No 63)

B. PLANNED REQUESTS FOR ADVICE (from the 2008 work programme and elsewhere)

5.     The effects of climate change on peace and security (See Advisory letter No 14)

6.     The population issue and development cooperation (See Advisory report No 66)

7.     Transnational networks and international regimes (from the 2008 work programme)

C. PLANNED NEW REQUESTS FOR ADVICE (Requests not yet received)

1.     The EU’s global role in the light of the Treaty of Lisbon

By providing for a permanent President of the European Council and a High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the Treaty of Lisbon will strengthen central executive power in the area of foreign policy. (The sectoral councils devoted to internal policy will, however, remain subject to rotating Presidencies.) Both the High Representative and the Council President are expected to assume a greater role in external relations, summits between the EU and other countries, and multilateral meetings involving the EU. For this AIV report, the new set of instruments provided for by the Treaty should serve as a more or less value-neutral point of departure for analysing how well the Treaty equips the EU to act in various policy areas (e.g. trade or finance) and what effect this could have on the effectiveness of external policy. How can we ensure that the EU fulfils its role as a global actor as effectively and coherently as possible, on the basis of existing institutions and instruments? Where do the EU’s interests lie (energy, environment et cetera)?

2.          The consequences of the Treaty of Lisbon for the EU’s human rights policy

Over the past few decades, changes to the EU’s human rights policy have been gradual and, despite existing treaties, largely ad hoc. The Treaty of Lisbon makes it possible to achieve greater coherence in European cooperation on human rights policy. This is especially relevant for the interaction between the Council, Commission and Parliament and, in the light of the EU’s planned accession to the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), the relationship between the EU and the Council of Europe. These developments give rise to a number of questions: what will this mean for the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice? What will the ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon mean for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), and human rights policy in particular? How much scope will this leave for individual EU member states to set their own policy? What will be the future role of the Union’s human rights ambassador? What means does the Netherlands have to make EU human rights policy more effective?

3.     Raw materials prices and development cooperation policy

One phenomenon often ascribed to the rapid economic development of emerging economies is the upward trend in recent years in the prices of energy, minerals and agricultural raw materials. This appears to be a far-reaching and perhaps lasting development that may well entail major long-term repercussions for people living in developing countries.

These repercussions can be positive in some respects, as they give rise to new economic prospects. They can also be negative, as they bring about new risks.

• One risk of rising food prices is a possible increase in famine, malnutrition, the irresponsible use of land, and deforestation. A significant issue in this regard is the extent to which demand-side competition contributes to food and biomass produced in developing countries being sold on the world market rather than on local markets.
• A risk of rising prices of mineral resources is that they can lead to conflict, inequitable distribution and disputes over ownership and exploration rights.
• A risk of rising energy prices is reduced access to affordable energy, an increase in deforestation, and the growth of conflicts over access to energy sources.

Lasting effects in any of these respects are bound to have an impact within development policy on choices between sectors and countries and on programmatic approaches. On the basis of several different scenarios for future raw materials prices and availability, the AIV report could give an outline of appropriate policy responses.

4.     International financial organisations

Although there is a growing realisation that greater international cooperation is needed to address the problems and challenges of an integrating world, our current system of intergovernmental cooperation is still largely based on structures from the 1940s. Since that time there have been dramatic changes in not only economic and political conditions, but also international capital flows and, with them, development finance practices. These changes have had a major impact on poverty reduction in developing countries and the promotion of global public goods. It is worth asking whether the division of roles between the multilateral development banks and the area in which they operate are still functional in the present circumstances.

The sphere of activity of the international financial institutions has changed radically. The World Bank Group now offers a wide range of non-financial services (databases, public-private partnerships, training courses, sector and project management and donor coordination, along with the associated publications and internet services). These services have seemingly become more important than the original task of providing funding. Another relevant question is to what extent the activities of regional development banks are duplicating, complementing or competing with those of the World Bank. A secondary question, which has already attracted a great deal of attention, is whether these organisations are well managed, and especially whether the representation of participating countries still reflects today’s economic and political reality.

In addition to the questions that have been raised about the activities and the division of labour between the multilateral development banks, it is important to assess the role of the Netherlands and the significance of these organisations to Dutch development cooperation. The Netherlands has strongly supported these institutions since their inception, playing an active role in their administration and donating generously to their many trust funds for many years. What strategy should inform the Dutch input to these organisations? Is the Netherlands making effective use of the existing multilateral channels, and is it involved in central policy discussions? The World Bank is cuurently mainly a knowledge institution: is this knowledge being used effectively, and is there sufficient substantive coordination taking place between the input received from the Dutch academic community, the business world, NGOs and the government?

AIV Work Programme for 2010

1. The international dimension of transition in the energy system (together with the General Energy Council (AER) – currently undergoing a merger with the Advisory Council for Science and Technology Policy (AWT) – and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)).

Given the pace of change – in power relations, global warming and strategies – an update is needed of the perspective on energy issues, set out in 2005 by the AIV and AER in advisory report no. 46: Energised Foreign Policy. It is clear that a transition is needed within the energy chain. A move towards sustainable energy sources implies a change to the system. What is the likelihood that the different positions of the US, EU, Russia, Brazil, China, India and other key energy players in the Middle East and Latin America in relation to resources will lead to different solutions and/or policy directions in energy and climate policy? Is transition to a non-fossil-fuel economy possible without gas (from Russia)? Lithium in car batteries means we will be dependent on just a small number of countries; will that prove to be an obstacle to transition to electrification? What impact will transition have on demand for oil, gas and biofuels, on the position of exporters and importers, and on the stability of specific regions?

2. The approach to global poverty post-2015

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) need to be achieved by 2015. The current financial and economic crisis will mean the world losing even more ground in attaining these goals. The drive to do so has lost some of its momentum. Whatever we do, poverty will still be with us after 2015.

Global problems are becoming more and more interconnected. As a result, there will be more demand for international cooperation, as opposed to traditional development cooperation. This will have repercussions for policy, its management and for the measurability and effectiveness of Dutch activities in this area.

How high a priority does poverty reduction now have? And how does poverty reduction relate to wider international cooperation? Will the post-2015 emphasis be on the well-being of societies rather than poverty reduction? Will the MDGs need to be redefined to accommodate this, post-2015? Could we use the concepts of well-being of societies and measurability, developed by the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD/DAC), in doing so? Which indicators could we use to improve the accuracy of development estimates?

3. Piracy

Piracy is a growing problem in various places in the world, particularly in the vicinity of the Horn of Africa. This topic encompasses a number of issues, such as weak states and the role of the navy, shipping companies, private security companies, the EU, NATO and the UN. Piracy has many negative consequences for international (and Dutch) trade. The Netherlands has spoken out against piracy, but it is not as yet very clear what form any practical response may take. The AIV could be asked to investigate what kind of approach might be both feasible and effective, taking into account the initial experiences of EU and NATO operations against piracy. It could also advise on implementation of Operation Atlanta and other specific issues.